Travel between Canada and the United States has long been one of the busiest international tourism corridors in the world. Millions of Canadians routinely crossed the border every year for vacations, shopping trips, business meetings, sporting events, and seasonal stays in warmer American states. However, new research from Canadian academics suggests the recent decline in travel to the United States may be far more dramatic than earlier reports indicated.
While initial border statistics pointed to a notable decrease in Canadian visits to the U.S., researchers from the University of Toronto now argue that official crossing numbers fail to capture the true scale of the downturn. Their latest findings reveal that Canadian travel behavior has changed substantially, with fewer trips, shorter stays, and reduced movement within American cities.
The study provides a deeper look into how political tensions, trade disputes, and changing economic realities are reshaping one of North America’s most important travel relationships. It also highlights how modern cellphone mobility data can reveal patterns traditional border statistics may overlook.
University of Toronto Researchers Reveal a Bigger Decline in U.S. Travel
Earlier estimates based on border crossing records from Statistics Canada suggested Canadian travel to the United States had dropped by approximately 25 percent. At first glance, that appeared significant but manageable given ongoing political and economic uncertainty.
However, researchers Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung, and Jeff Allen from the University of Toronto’s School of Cities decided to examine the issue through a different lens. Instead of relying solely on official border counts, they analyzed cellphone activity in major U.S. metropolitan areas to better understand how Canadians were actually traveling once inside the country.
Their findings painted a far more concerning picture for American tourism markets. According to their analysis, the median decline in Canadian visits to U.S. cities reached 42 percent.
This means the slowdown is not only larger than initially believed, but also more complex. Canadians who continue to travel south of the border appear to be spending less time there and visiting fewer destinations than in previous years.
The researchers emphasized that traditional border crossing data may not fully reflect changing travel behavior because it simply counts entries into the United States. It does not measure how extensively travelers move throughout the country or how long they remain there.
Why Cellphone Data Tells a Different Story
The use of cellphone mobility data has become increasingly important in urban planning, transportation studies, and tourism analysis. In this case, the University of Toronto researchers tracked anonymized Canadian devices between April 2024 and March 2026.
To qualify as a valid cross-border trip, a device had to stop in Canada, appear in the United States, and then return to Canada. By analyzing these patterns, researchers could estimate not only how many Canadians traveled but also how they behaved during their visits.
This methodology provided several advantages over traditional border statistics.
First, it captured movement within U.S. cities rather than simply recording entries at the border. A traveler who briefly crossed for shopping and immediately returned home would appear identical to a traveler who spent two weeks visiting multiple American destinations in standard border data.
Second, cellphone tracking allowed researchers to see whether Canadians were reducing the number of cities they visited during trips. The data suggested travelers were limiting movement and shortening stays, indicating reduced economic impact on local tourism industries.
Third, the approach included freight-related traffic and business movement, areas often excluded from tourism-focused border crossing estimates.
The researchers argued that these differences reveal a broader contraction in Canada-U.S. travel activity than previously understood.
Political Tensions Are Influencing Travel Decisions
One of the major themes behind the research is the growing influence of political tensions on travel behavior. The project, titled “Mapping Tariffs,” was created to measure the fallout from trade disputes, tariff policies, annexation rhetoric, and worsening diplomatic relations associated with U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.
Political disagreements between neighboring countries can significantly affect tourism patterns. Travelers may feel unwelcome, uncertain about border experiences, or hesitant to spend money in countries perceived as politically hostile.
In recent years, tensions between Canada and the United States have periodically escalated over trade tariffs, economic nationalism, and political rhetoric. These issues appear to be influencing not only consumer sentiment but also business travel and freight movement.
Canadians have historically viewed the United States as an easy and familiar travel destination. However, political strain may be changing that perception, encouraging travelers to seek alternatives closer to home or in other international markets.
The study suggests that this shift is not merely symbolic. It is producing measurable economic consequences for American cities that traditionally relied heavily on Canadian visitors.
Myrtle Beach Saw the Sharpest Drop in Canadian Visitors
Among all the U.S. metropolitan areas analyzed, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina experienced the largest decline in Canadian travel.
According to the research, visits from Canadians dropped by 65.4 percent when comparing the periods from 2024–2025 to 2025–2026.
Myrtle Beach has long been a favorite destination for Canadian tourists seeking warm weather, golf vacations, and affordable coastal getaways. A decline of this magnitude could significantly impact local hotels, restaurants, entertainment venues, and seasonal businesses.
The sharp downturn highlights how dependent some American tourism regions are on Canadian travelers, particularly destinations catering to snowbirds and extended winter vacations.
Florida Cities Were Hit Especially Hard
Florida emerged as one of the states most affected by declining Canadian travel. Several Florida metropolitan areas ranked among the top ten cities with the biggest decreases in visitors from Canada.
These included:
Orlando
Known globally for its theme parks and family attractions, Orlando has traditionally attracted large numbers of Canadian families and winter travelers. Reduced Canadian visitation could affect hotel occupancy, entertainment spending, and retail activity.
Miami
Miami’s international appeal and cruise industry have historically drawn substantial Canadian tourism. The latest data suggests many Canadians are either postponing trips or choosing alternative destinations.
Naples
Naples has long been popular among affluent Canadian retirees and seasonal residents. Declining travel may reflect concerns about costs, politics, or changing retirement preferences.
Cape Coral and North Port
These Gulf Coast communities have depended heavily on Canadian seasonal homeowners and snowbirds. Reduced visitation can affect local real estate, restaurants, healthcare providers, and small businesses.
Panama City
Another Florida destination seeing significant declines, Panama City traditionally benefited from beach tourism and extended winter stays by Canadian travelers.
The concentration of affected Florida cities suggests broader changes in seasonal migration and retirement travel patterns among Canadians.
Border Cities Also Experienced Major Declines
The study found that border-area metropolitan regions were also heavily impacted.
Cities near the Canadian border often depend on short-term visits for shopping, dining, entertainment, and business activity. Many local economies are built around the convenience of cross-border movement.
As travel slowed, these regions likely experienced reduced retail sales, fewer hotel bookings, and lower restaurant traffic.
The findings indicate that changing travel behavior is not confined to leisure tourism hotspots. It is also affecting communities where cross-border movement has traditionally been part of everyday life.
San Francisco and Other Major Tourist Destinations Felt the Impact
The research also identified declines in larger urban destinations such as San Francisco.
Major tourist cities rely heavily on international visitors for hotel stays, conventions, cultural attractions, and dining revenue. Canadians have historically represented an important segment of these international markets.
A sustained decline in Canadian visitation could create challenges for tourism recovery efforts, especially in cities still rebuilding after pandemic-related disruptions and economic uncertainty.
The data suggests Canadians are becoming more selective about travel, potentially shortening itineraries or choosing domestic tourism options instead of expensive U.S. urban vacations.
Nearly 50 U.S. Metropolitan Areas Saw Massive Drops
Perhaps the most striking finding from the study is the scale of the decline across the country.
Researchers reported that 50 major U.S. metropolitan areas experienced declines in Canadian travel of 50 percent or greater during the examined period.
That level of reduction signals a widespread transformation rather than isolated tourism weakness.
Only three of the 267 cities analyzed actually recorded increases in Canadian travel:
Portland, Oregon
Portland was one of the few metropolitan areas to see growth in Canadian visitors. The city’s cultural appeal, environmental reputation, and proximity to western Canada may have contributed to continued interest.
Gainesville, Florida
Gainesville’s increase may reflect specialized travel patterns related to education, healthcare, or niche tourism sectors.
Cleveland
Cleveland also experienced increased Canadian travel, potentially due to business activity, sports tourism, or affordability compared to other U.S. destinations.
The fact that only three cities showed growth demonstrates how broad the decline has become.
Statistics Canada Data Shows a Slight Improvement in April 2026
Despite the concerning long-term trend, newer data from Statistics Canada offered a small sign of improvement.
April 2026 marked the first year-over-year increase in Canadian return trips from the United States since December 2024. Canadian return travel rose by 1.4 percent compared with April 2025.
At first glance, this suggests travel demand may be stabilizing after an extended downturn.
However, context is important. Statistics Canada noted that when April 2026 figures are compared to April 2024 levels, travel remains down by approximately 30 percent.
This indicates that while the decline may be slowing, travel volumes are still significantly below historical norms.
The modest rebound may reflect seasonal factors, improved economic confidence, or pent-up travel demand. Yet the broader trend still points toward a major restructuring of Canada-U.S. travel patterns.
Economic Implications for the U.S. Tourism Industry
Canadian travelers represent one of the most valuable international tourism markets for the United States. Their proximity, frequency of visits, and spending habits make them especially important for many local economies.
When Canadians reduce travel, the consequences extend far beyond airlines and hotels.
Restaurants lose customers. Retailers experience fewer cross-border shoppers. Tourist attractions sell fewer tickets. Real estate markets see less seasonal activity. Even healthcare providers and transportation companies can feel the effects.
States such as Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina have historically benefited enormously from long-term Canadian visitors escaping winter weather. A sustained reduction in these travelers could reshape local economies that have depended on seasonal migration for decades.
The impact may also ripple through convention centers, sporting events, cruise operations, and small businesses serving international tourists.
Why Canadians May Be Traveling Less to the U.S.
Several factors likely contribute to the decline in travel.
Political Climate
Political tensions and nationalist rhetoric may discourage some Canadians from choosing the United States as a vacation destination.
Economic Pressures
Higher travel costs, inflation, and currency exchange concerns can make American trips less affordable.
Alternative Destinations
Canadians may increasingly choose domestic tourism or overseas destinations offering better value or fewer political concerns.
Shorter Trips
The research suggests Canadians are spending less time in the U.S., potentially due to rising accommodation costs or changing work habits.
Business Travel Changes
Remote work and virtual meetings may also be reducing traditional cross-border business travel.
Together, these factors are reshaping long-standing travel habits between the two countries.
The Future of Canada-U.S. Travel Remains Uncertain
The relationship between Canada and the United States has historically been defined by openness, economic integration, and frequent personal travel. However, recent data suggests that relationship may be entering a new phase.
Although border crossing numbers alone initially suggested moderate declines, cellphone mobility analysis reveals a much deeper contraction in Canadian travel activity throughout the United States.
The findings from the University of Toronto researchers underscore how travel behavior is evolving in response to political, economic, and social pressures. Canadians are not simply crossing the border less often. They are also changing how they travel, where they go, and how long they stay.
For American tourism-dependent cities, especially those reliant on Canadian visitors, adapting to this shift may become increasingly important in the years ahead.