Canada’s latest emissions data reveals a troubling trend. While overall greenhouse gas levels remain mostly unchanged, oil and gas emissions continue to climb, slowing the country’s progress toward its climate goals.
According to the latest National Inventory Report released by Government of Canada, emissions in 2024 reached 685 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. That is only slightly lower than 2023 levels, showing that progress has largely stalled.
The data highlights a growing concern. Even as other sectors stabilize, oil and gas emissions are rising again, creating a major obstacle for Canada’s long-term climate commitments.
Oil and Gas Emissions Continue to Rise Across Canada
One of the most significant findings in the report is the steady increase in oil and gas emissions. This sector remains the largest source of greenhouse gases in the country.
Since the pandemic, oil and gas emissions have rebounded sharply. Increased production in Alberta and British Columbia has pushed emissions higher, driven by expanded export capacity and energy demand.
Oil sands production, in particular, continues to drive oil and gas emissions upward. Emissions from this segment have grown dramatically over the past two decades, reflecting increased output without equivalent reductions in carbon intensity.
Despite technological improvements, oil and gas emissions remain a dominant force in Canada’s emissions profile.
Canada’s Overall Emissions Show Little Change
While oil and gas emissions are rising, most other sectors have seen little movement. Transportation, buildings, and heavy industry have remained relatively flat compared to previous years.
This has resulted in Canada’s total emissions staying almost unchanged. The small drop from 687 to 685 million tonnes suggests limited progress rather than a meaningful reduction.
The Environment and Climate Change Canada report confirms that while some gains have been made, they are not enough to offset the increase in oil and gas emissions.
Canada’s 2030 Climate Target Now Looks Out of Reach
Canada has committed to reducing emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This target is part of the country’s obligations under the Paris Agreement.
However, current trends suggest that goal will not be met.
Emissions are currently only about 10 percent below 2005 levels. With oil and gas emissions rising and other sectors plateauing, the gap between current performance and the 2030 target continues to widen.
Experts warn that without significant policy changes, Canada will fall short of its commitments.
Electricity Sector Cuts Emissions but Faces New Risks
One of the few success stories in Canada’s emissions record is electricity generation. Since 2005, emissions from this sector have dropped by roughly 57 percent.
This decline is largely due to the phase-out of coal-fired power and increased reliance on cleaner energy sources such as hydropower and nuclear.
For example, Ontario eliminated coal power by 2015, while Alberta completed its transition more recently.
However, new concerns are emerging. Increased reliance on natural gas for electricity generation could slow further progress. While gas is cleaner than coal, it still contributes to oil and gas emissions overall.
Oil Sands Production Driving Long-Term Emissions Growth
A major factor behind rising oil and gas emissions is the continued expansion of oil sands production.
Emissions from oil sands have surged from 33 million tonnes in 2005 to 92 million tonnes in 2024. This steady increase reflects growing production levels combined with limited emissions controls.
Regions such as Alberta remain central to this trend, where oil sands operations continue to expand.
Without stronger regulations or technological breakthroughs, oil sands will remain a key driver of oil and gas emissions in Canada.
Infrastructure Expansion Adds Pressure on Emissions
Recent infrastructure developments are also contributing to rising oil and gas emissions.
Projects such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline and new liquefied natural gas export facilities in British Columbia have increased production capacity.
These developments support economic growth but also lead to higher oil and gas emissions by enabling greater extraction and export of fossil fuels.
This creates a policy challenge, balancing economic priorities with climate commitments.
Flat Emissions Reflect Fragile Progress
The current emissions trend highlights a fragile balance. Gains made in cleaner electricity, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency are being offset by rising oil and gas emissions.
As a result, Canada’s overall emissions remain flat rather than declining at the pace required.
Experts warn that without targeted action to reduce oil and gas emissions, progress in other sectors will continue to be undermined.
Policy and Technology Will Determine Future Outcomes
The path forward depends heavily on how Canada addresses oil and gas emissions.
Potential solutions include:
- Stronger emissions regulations for oil and gas operations
- Increased investment in carbon capture technologies
- Faster expansion of renewable energy sources
- Policies to limit emissions growth from oil sands
The federal framework under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act sets clear targets, but achieving them will require more aggressive implementation.
Canada’s Climate Challenge Ahead
Canada’s latest emissions report makes one thing clear. While some progress has been made, oil and gas emissions remain a major barrier to achieving national climate goals.
The country’s overall emissions are no longer rising rapidly, but they are not falling fast enough either. As oil and gas emissions continue to grow, the window to meet the 2030 target is narrowing.
Without decisive action, Canada risks falling short of its commitments under the Paris Agreement, leaving future reductions even more challenging and costly.
The focus now turns to whether policymakers can curb oil and gas emissions while maintaining economic stability. The outcome will shape Canada’s climate trajectory for decades to come.